Supplemental Material
The article below accompanies Emily Yates’ “Dixon National Tallgrass Prairie Seed Bank: Ex-situ Conservation of Native Plant Species” article, published in the Missouri Prairie Journal (Vol. 30, # 1).
Targeted Seed Banking:
Conserving Species Likely to have Shifting Ranges with Climate Change
By Emily Yates
Species ranges are shifting with changing climate. Many plant species are likely to have difficulty migrating under rapid climate change. Seed banking efforts, such as those undertaken by the Dixon National Tallgrass Prairie Seed Bank, can provide the propagules necessary for restoration and potential assisted migration studies in the future.
Species distribution modeling with Diva-GIS or Maxent software can be used to predict current and future distributions of species using presence-only data (gleaned from herbarium voucher specimens) of plant species with well known distributions.
Both current distributions and potential range shifts under moderate increases of CO2 and temperature were modeled in the maps shown here. In the maps, red indicates the most suitable habitat for the species. A northeastern shift in the potential future range of big bluestem grass (Andropogon gerardii) can be observed.
If a widespread keystone species of tallgrass prairie habitat like big bluestem illustrates potential northeastern range shifts under future climate change scenarios— potentially shifting outside its current biogeographic area or “climate envelope”—it would be expected that other native species with less widespread, more specific habitat preferences will experience even more drastic shifts in species ranges under climate change. Again, seeds conserved in seed banks can provide germplasm to re-establish populations and restore habitats.